In a dramatic change, hedge funds seem to accelerate short positions in Ethereum at a rate that is not previously seen, arousing questions about the question of whether the second cryptocurrency by market capitalization could be confronted with water in difficulty – Or if something else is at stake.
According to analysts renowned for Kobeissi’s letter (@kobeissiletter), short positioning in Ethereum “is now up + 40% in a week and + 500% since November 2024.” Their conclusions, common On X, affirms that “never in history the hedge funds of Wall Street have been so little time of Ethereum, and it is not even close”, which invites the question: “that know that the desktop funds are coming? ”
Massive short short Ethereum to come?
The thread of Kobeissi’s letter highlights an extreme divergence between the action of Ethereum prices and the long -term positioning among hedge funds. They indicate a particularly volatile period on February 2, when Ethereum plunged 37% in just 60 hours as the titles of the trade war emerged, destroying more than one dollars of the cryptography market “in hours” .
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Analysts note how ETH entries were robust in December 2024 – even as hedge funds increased a short exposure. According to Kobeissi’s letter: “In just 3 weeks, ETH saw + $ 2 billion in new funds with a record weekly influx of + $ 854 million. However, the hedge funds bet the eth of eTh and limit the thrusts. »»
They also underline the peaks in the volume of the exchanges of Ethereum, in particular on January 21 (day of the inauguration) and towards the crash of February 3. Despite the historically high entries, the price of Ethereum “failed to recover the gap below, even if a week has passed” and is currently negotiated “~ 45% below its higher record in November 2021”.
One of the biggest unknowns remains why the hedge funds are so dedicated to the short-circuit of the ETH. Analysts write: “The potential reasons are from market manipulationto harmless crypto hedges, to a lower perspective on Ethereum itself. However, it is quite strange like the Trump administration and New regulators have favored Eth. Large because of this extreme positioning, Ethereum has considerably underperformed bitcoin. »»
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Kobeissi’s letter concludes his thread by drawing attention to Bitcoin outperformance and raises the question of whether a short pressure could be in preparation: Ethereum could be put in place for a short pressure? This extreme positioning means that large oscillations like that of February 3 will be more common. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin has been up 12 times more than Ethereum. Is a short pressure Do you take place to fill this gap?
Glassnod cryptovizart turns around
Everyone in the crypto analysis sphere is not convinced that the tidal wave of short positions Ethereum signals a downward perspective. The main researcher in Glassnode, cryptovizart.₿ (@cryptovizart), went to X for challenge The alarmist circulates on social networks: “Barchart shouts,” the biggest ETH short in history! ” And Crypto Twitter runs like headless chickens. Seriously, if you fell into this title of Clickbait, it’s time to go up your game. Set the records on the right. “”
In a detailed thread, Cryptovizart stresses that the graph widely shared on the short positions of hedge funds probably represents only one subset of the market (for example, “funds with leverage / desktop funds / cta”) and Do not take into account other important players such as asset managers, non -declarable traders and chain holders. They add that “massive short films” are also seen in future Bitcoin, but BTC surpassed the ETH during the same period.
In addition, Cryptovizart stresses that future ether CME are only one ribbon of global cryptography derivatives. Liquidity on platforms like Binance, Bybit, OKX, as well as the chain cash positions and markets, offer a wider view than the data from an exchange do not suggest. “The short term of a net group ≠ the whole market is short net. Hedge positions ≠ purely lowering Paris. »»
Their last note: a large part of the positioning could be part of “non -directional strategies – such as species and carry”, which are neutral strategies used to lock arbitration gains and are not simply a direct bet against ‘Eth.
At the time of the press, ETH exchanged $ 2,629.
Star image created with dall.e, tradingView.com graphic
