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US President Donald Trump officially created a Bitcoin strategic reserve last week – an action that sparked both the celebration and the concerns in the industry. At the heart of this debate is a central question: will Bitcoin become a geopolitically world macro active as gold, or will it remain a niche that holds libertarians, cypherpunks and speculators?
This is the nucleus to remember from the last Memo on investorsWritten by investment director Matt Hougan. Entitled “The only question in Bitcoin” and dated March 10, 2025, the memo underlines how the long -term perspectives of Bitcoin can depend if governments around the world – start with the United States – consider it sufficiently essential to continue building strategic reserves.
The only big question for bitcoin
In the memo, Hougan highlights the striking nature of the decision of the American government, writing: “Fifteen years after the creation of Bitcoin – a decade and a half of ridicule and skepticism, of people who call it a rock of the company” and “ Poison Squared ”, the American government declared Bitcoin a “ strategy ” sold ”.
He maintains that Bitcoin approval as Strategic reserve assets Sign a quarter of historical work: “This is a historical step, which, over time, will help to propel Bitcoin to new heights of all time. Congratulations to all those who believed in this possibility before it was cool. »»
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However, the markets have not uniformly welcomed this announcement. Although the government’s official recognition seems to strengthen Bitcoin’s legitimacy, it has also disappointed certain investors who expected an immediate influx of new government purchases.
Shortly after the news from the reserve emerged, the Bitcoin price dropped by 13% of its recent summit of more than $ 92,000, lowering below $ 80,000 for the first time since November 2024. Hougan has been on several contributory factors: wider economic concerns, a release of the equity market and, crucially, what he calls a “maltreatment” of the real position of the real position.
“Despite the historical nature of the declaration, Bitcoin is sharply decreasing in recent days,” he notes in memo. Investors apparently hoped for large -scale immediate purchases from the US Treasury. Instead, they learned that the reserve would initially include the government’s existing Bitcoin holdings – an estimated 200,000 BTC, worth around 16 billion dollars at current prices.
Hougan believes that the negative market reaction is unjustified, stressing that the simple fact of preserving these 200,000 bitcoins instead of selling them – once planned under the previous administration – establishes substantial overhang of the market.
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In addition, the new decree explicitly indicates: “[T]The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce will develop strategies to acquire additional BTC Government provided that these strategies are neutral on the budget and do not impose additional costs on American taxpayers. »»
In his memo, Hougan underlines the meaning of the word “must”, which suggests that this indicates a mandate rather than a simple possibility. Above all, the Bitwise memo insists on a long -term perspective, urging investors to focus on what Hougan ends “the only question in Bitcoin”. This question is whether Bitcoin becomes important worldwide, similar to gold, or if it remains peripheral.
“If Bitcoin counts in the world, here is my point of view: it will be an asset of 10 to 50 billions of dollars, which implies a 5x-25x yield of current prices. If this is not the case, it will be a footnote in history, bouncing below $ 150,000, supported only by a small cohort of libertarians, cypherpunks and speculators. There is not between the two. Bitcoin counts overall or that is not the case, ”writes Hougan.
From this point of view, the choice of the American government to keep (and potentially extend) its Bitcoin operations represent a huge signal for other countries. If, as Hougan suggests, nations such as Cheche, Russia, China, El SalvadorAnd India weighs their own strategic movements in the space of digital assets, the United States adopting Bitcoin as strategies could encourage them to follow up on, especially if they want to face any other American acquisition.
While some investors can be discouraged by the immediate lack of A massive government buysBitwise’s note remains optimistic about the recent volatility of Bitcoin. Hougan labels the current drop in prices as an opportunity for those who envisage a longer calendar. “I see a big point to remember. This short-term weakness is a gift, ”he concludes.
At the time of the press, BTC exchanged $ 80,319.
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