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Arthur Hayes, the co -founder of Bitmex and director of Maelstrom Capital, argues that the US Treasury – rather than the Federal Reserve – is the real engine of the current Haussier market in risky assets, above all among them. Speaking in a single live streaming interview Wednesday evening, Hayes argued that traders should “ignore Powell” and analyze instead of each word and data table that leaves the Treasury’s quarterly reimbursement announcement.
“Powell has not really been important for many years,” said Hayes, rejecting the decision of the president of the Fed to leave the rate of federal combinations of 4.25% to 4.50% for a third consecutive meeting. “The real show is in the treasure department. […] Listen to Bessent. Ignore Powell. It is not relevant.
The thesis of Hayes is based on a liquidity dynamic which surfaced for the first time in the third quarter of 2022. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, he said, “said two billion dollars and a half funds exceeded Fed reversed repo Installation »and moved the issue to short -term cash flow bills. This maneuver, by the calculation of Hayes, a Siphone of the FED sleeping money and “injected it into the global money markets”, ranking a large gathering which has lifted the actions, the obligations, the gold and – the crypto. diet. »»
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The new authority of the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to make buyers is, according to Hayes, the next accelerator. The redemptions would allow the treasure to recycle the titles on the race and to absorb the food shocks without forcing the Fed to openly widen its balance sheet. “Bessent has tools,” noted Hayes, quoting an appearance of Bloomberg on April 11. “Powell will sit down and say” I’m going to watch the data “, but it’s a show.”
Bitcoin logic macro
Hayes reduces commercial implications to a single variable: the quantity of fiatnel dollars in circulation. “If there are a larger amount of fiat dollars in the world than yesterday, Bitcoin and Crypto will do well,” he said. Price stability debates, exchange rate gyps and even the trajectory of Index in American dollars (DXY) are secondary. “Bitcoin does not care. All that interests us is: are there more dollars in the system today than yesterday?”
This framework underpins its longtime forecasts that Bitcoin can reach $ 1 million Before 2028. The target is deliberately round – “We are humans, we are stupid, simply choose a round number” – but Hayes bases it in budgetary pressures.
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The interest in the American national debt was the fastest growth element in the presentation of the most recent Treasury Board of the Treasury Boards; Social security, health insurance and defense costs, he argued, will only push higher borrowing needs. “There is no way that the US government will stop spending money,” he said, adding that it expects “an acceleration of the printing of money and budgeting” once Powell’s mandate expires in May 2026.
When he was asked how he allocates capital, Hayes said that around 60% to 65% of his liquid wallet was in Bitcoin, 20% in ether, with the rest in a handful of what he called “quality shitcoins”. He underlined three projects – Pendle, Etherfi and Ethena – as examples of what he calls the “fundamental season”, protocols that generate real income and share it with tokens holders.
The moment of a wider rotation in altcoins, he added, will depend on the domination of Bitcoin. “I think we have to exceed 70% before starting to see a rotation in the alts”, a threshold that he temporarily places in the price range from $ 110,000 to $ 150,000.
Hayes was skeptical that the American price confrontation will significantly reduce the bilateral gap. The two parties, he said, need an “face economy announcement” for the national public, but the United States will continue to import Chinese products, whether directly or by the third country. Over time, he expects Washington to be less based on tariffs and more on capital accounts measures – such as usage costs on treasury bills held by foreigners – to reorganize trade flows without asking consumers “to buy fewer things”.
A lower dollar, in its model, is a by-product of these adjustments, and not a targeted objective centrally. “If foreigners sell less dollars and these dollars are not invested in the financial markets, the dollar will drop in value,” he said. This again nourishes the Bitcoin offer.
At the time of the press, the BTC was negotiated at $ 98,827.
Star image created with dall.e, tradingView.com graphic
