Bitcoin Rally is far from finished – Top Expert predicts $ 150,000

In the latest episode of the Bitcoin layer, the host Nik Bhatia invited the analyst of the James Check – Better known under the name of “Checkmate” – to dissect the forces that carried the six Bitcoin figures and to explain why he thinks that the market always points to a passage at around $ 150,000.

From the start, check his analysis in macroeconomic terms. Since the 2008 financial crisis, he said, Dollar Force has been “a big trend” which has rewarded foreign investors who compare other currencies, buy dollars and place these dollars in US stocks. But that time, he argued, gave way to a “regime of domination of sound money”:

“My favorite table is the S&P 500 at the price of gold. You get about ten years where the actions run gold, then ten years when gold travels the actions. Since 2022, this graph has returned in favor of Gold, and for the first time in history, we have a change of reign, and it does not happen to occur during the night.

Why $ 150,000 is the next for Bitcoin

The conversation quickly went from macro currents to the structure of the market. After the spring sale, which led the prices of the middle of $ 90,000 in the middle of $ 70,000 – an “air pocket” where a small historic offer had treated – Bitcoin fell the dense supply group around $ 95,000 with surprising ease.

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“People were ready to sit tight and allow the market to find its level. They bought $ 100,000, had watched it fall at $ 75,000, bought more, and now they are on the whole battery. This kind of behavior is a real confidence.”

Shortly after this consolidation, the market printed a local summit nearly $ 105,000. For veteran participants, psychological change was palpable. “$ 100,000 was the target of the last decade,” said Check. “Now it’s the soil. Bitcoin has proven that it is up to a market capitalization of billions of dollars, overthrew the money and feels perfectly natural among the five largest monetary assets on earth.

Check the quantitative framework is based on the Market value and value ratio made (MVRV)which compares the price compared to the base of the aggregated chain costs. Translating the extremes MVRV Historical levels in front level puts the statistical ceiling of the current cycle nearly $ 166,000: “If the price increases to $ 166,000, my own objective is to say:` `We are two standard deviations above average, and we have remained higher than these five percent of the time. ” ”.

This band – from $ 150,000 to $ 160,000 – obtains the altitude he expected in the first serious wave of profit. However, the level remains plausible precisely because it is rooted in a behavior made, and not in the supply calendar: “There is a reason why the MVRV becomes so high. When people look at their wallet and see a house sitting there in green numbers, a new request learned on the sales button. You don’t need everyone to sell – just enough to overcome a new request. “

Derivatives, “time pain” and reduction by half

A maturity derivative market is central to check the thesis. It expects perpetual financing rates to vioder 20% annulized on a fast race around $ 150,000, inviting basic short -term traders and perceiving the premium. Options of options, for their part, can harvest the fatty fatty bonus by selling calls.

“Large asset managers must cover themselves. If they cannot dismiss a billion dollars position in the options, they will not take the position in the first place. Derivatives are not putting demand – they are plumbing which allows a real scale of capital in the asset.”

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These instruments also reshape the corrections. When the withdrawals of 2017 were 40% dives that reversed in time, today’s market prefers less deep and longer consolidations – episodes that impose what the check calls time pain. “The deep pain is easy to see – your parts are 30% underwater. The pain of time is more difficult. Three months of chops at the same level will carry investors, and boredom is a powerful seller. ”

Perhaps one of the most striking elements of the interview was deliberate from Check Break of the four -year cycle model centered in two. After studying the withdrawal from August to September 2023, the mid-2014 range and the last sale, he concluded that the short-term cost base now works less as a floor or a binary ceiling and more as an average reversion anchor.

“People now use Bitcoin to answer the world rather than respond to Bitcoin. The macro feeling – not programmed supply shocks – is leading the big flows. ”

Treasury adoption and trusted machine

During follow -up Business Treasury VoyagesETF and other major holders, check a rear zoom to a 30 -day change in the ceiling made – the cleanest view of net in dollars. Even the outings of FNB of March-April, he noted, were almost equaled by the drop in the open interest of the CME, which implies that “mechanics and mechanical transport take place rather than by loss of conviction”.

Closing the conversation, he returned to the first principles: “The markets are a large machine of trust. The dollar cycle, the rotation of gold capital, the cost of the cover – all of this directly feeds the Bitcoin control books, the options of option and the sound books on the chain.
For James Check, the graph is already drawing an answer: somewhere around $ 150,000, the trust machine will pass its next major test.

At the time of the press, BTC exchanged $ 102,573.

Star image created with dall.e, tradingView.com graphic