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Bitcoin is currently negotiating at $ 109,000, marking a marginal drop of 0.6% in the last 24 hours. Despite this short -term drop, the broader market of the market remains intact, Bitcoin recording a gain of approximately 15% in the last month.
This performance comes after BTC has established a new summit of all time just above the bar of $ 111,000 a few days ago, continuing its Routine up to T2 2025.
Burak Kesmeci, contributor to the Quicktake platform of cryptocurrency, recently discussed the market value ratio / value achieved (MVRV) in his latest analysis, “Bitcoin MVRV: will the long-term trend break this time?”
The MVRV ratio compares the market value of Bitcoin to its value carried out, effectively measuring the profitability of holders and offering an overview of the feeling of the market and potential turns.
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The MVRV report approaches crucial resistance
In his analysisKesmeci highlighted the importance of the simple mobile average at 365 days (SMA365) as a reference for the MVRV metric. Historically, when the Bitcoin MVRV crosses and maintains each week closes on the SMA365, it generally signals an impulse upwards.
Kesmeci provided the example from April 2025, when the MVRV ratio exceeded SMA365, corresponding to the substantial substantial increase in Bitcoin from around $ 94,000 to $ 111,000, subsequently fixing a new record.
Currently, the MVRV is 2.36, comfortably above the SMA365 level of 2.14. However, the analyst underlines a significant resistance which is looming at 2.93, a critical historical level where the previous rallies have encountered opposite winds.
The upcoming test in this resistance could indicate whether the bitcoin will maintain its ascending trajectory or will experience a period of Stabilization or correction. Kesmeci stressed prudence, suggesting that traders carefully monitor the behavior of the MVRV, because the approach of these levels often encourages market players to Revalle the risk.
Bitcoin retail investors remain prudently absent
Another factor shaping Bitcoin market conditions is the notable lack of commitment to retail investors. Kesmeci observed that despite Bitcoin reaching new records in the second quarter of 2025, the participation of retail investors, measured by Transfer volumes In smaller names (less than $ 10,000), remains relatively moderate.
While the trajectory of bitcoin prices has remained robust, retail volumes have experienced minimum increases, indicating that the current rally is mainly motivated by institutional or large -scale investors.
Historically, the participation of retail investors served as an essential engine for the supported bull markets, amplifying the price movements initially powered by institutional investments.
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Kesmeci notes that the old major rallies, such as that observed in 2020-2021, took on significant momentum when retail investors have actively joined. Thus, an essential aspect in the future will be to monitor retail activity.
Any increase in retail investments could potentially catalyze the appreciation of bitcoin, strengthen recent gains and prepare the way for a wider market rally.
Star image created with Dall-E, tradingView graphic
