This graph warns that Bitcoin momentum can run out, here is why

by Barry Solano
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Bitcoin is currently negotiating above $ 107,000 following a recent peak which saw the asset touch a new record greater than $ 111,000. Although this marks a decrease of 3.9% compared to its highest level, the wider monthly trend remains positive, BTC always Save more than 10% in the last 30 days.

The market, however, has paid its attention from the price movement to the dynamics on the chain, in particular the behavior of new and long -term holders.

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Avocado Onchain chain analyst, writing on the Quicktake Cryptotics platform, examined UTXO transaction production data (UTXO) to assess investor trends during this cycle stage.

In an article entitled “Utxo Age Band Analysis: slow -on -investors can limit the rise in bitcoin”, he explored if the BTC continuous rally Can be supported without new capital entries for new market players.

Its results suggest that while the older parts are sold, the influx of more recent investors remains low, a factor which has historically limited the momentum in the previous cycles.

Bitcoin made of traffic jams
Bitcoin made traffic jams. | Source: cryptocurrency

The UTXO age distribution reveals that significant part of the BTC supply remains with the holders who have kept their assets for more than six months. The age group of 6 to 12 months has increased, which suggests that a large part of market players still fall into the long -term holding category.

Historically, when the proportion of these holders Began to shrink, it often preceded the main peaks of the Bitcoin price cycle, driven by a transition from long -term coins to new investors.

However, despite Bitcoin reaching new heights, the percentage of UTXOS held by investors with a period of detention less than one month remains well below historical threshold Seen from the summits of the previous market.

Bitcoin made traffic jams.
Bitcoin made traffic jams. | Source: cryptocurrency

During previous bull cycles, a new participation of investors often exceeded 50%. Currently, this figure is around 20%, even lower than peak levels during this recent gathering. The Avocado Onchain warns that without a significant increase in the participation of new investors, the market could find it difficult to maintain an increase dynamic.

The big holders accumulate while the retail remains on the sidelines

While retail entries seem to be missing, large-scale accumulation continues in the background. A recent update Crypto on X stressed that Bitcoin addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, excluding exchanges and minors, increased regularly.

These entities are often associated with institutional investors or long -term strategic holders, and their accumulation is often interpreted as an increasing signal of long -term perspectives of the BTC.

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Although retail is largely inactive, institutional behavior Can be used as a basis for price support. The current dynamic reflects a market in a transition phase, with an increase potential if a wider participation begins to increase.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price board on tradingView
The BTC price rises on the graph of 2 hours. Source: BTC / USDT on TradingView.com

Star image created with Dall-E, tradingView graphic



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