Bitcoin will hover, Altcoins will not do – Charles Edwards explains why

In an interview with Korean researcher Crypto Juyuk Bak, also known as @juhyukb, CEO of Capriole Investments Charles Edwards exposed A striking divergence on the markets of cryptographic assets: while Bitcoin could double this year, altcoins remain structurally altered and far from any significant rotation.

Bitcoin could reach $ 200,000 this year

Speaking from the point of view of a macro designer fundraising operator, Edwards was unequivocal on Bitcoin, declaring: “If the data remains in the current trend in which we are, I think that $ 150 to 200,000 are certainly possible this year.” The founder of Capriole, a fund known for pioneer chain assessment models such as Hash ribbonsThe energy value and the macro index have founded these forecasts in a network of technical signals, feeling and macroeconomics.

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“We print new peaks of all time to daily and weekly closure,” said Edwards. “As long as we stay above $ 104,000 […] As long as the trendy macro index and American liquidity continue to increase, this environment is very optimistic. »»

The Capriole owner macro index – an automatic learning model aggregating more than 100 inputs of liquidity nourished in the affair and equity markets – has become a decisive positive manner. The Bitcoin rally, underlined Edwards, is still reinforced by measures such as MVRV Z-SCOREHodler growth rate and energy value, any signaling room for expansion.

But while Bitcoin shows force on several dimensions, altcoins tell a very different story.

The death of the old Altcoin cycle

Edwards refrained from appointing specific altcoins but pronounced a clear macro verdict: the dynamics of the capital flow has changed and the altcoins are no longer on an equal footing with bitcoin. “Structurally, things are a bit different this cycle […] The greatest motor forces are Bitcoin ETF and American policy. This creates a centralization effect-manufacturing capital directly in Bitcoin, “he said.

He underlined the historical cycles of altcoin gatherings led by detail, followed by catastrophic prints – often exceeding 99% of losses. “The retail trade has just been destroyed,” he said without. “There is fatigue in the Altcoin space which was not there four or five years ago.”

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The inheritance of failing ICOs, broken tokenomics and events such as FTX collapse have left lasting scars. Meanwhile, institutions avoid the risks and complexity of digital assets with smaller capitalization, opting rather for the exposure regulated by Bitcoin through FNB and business cash benefits. “It was more a level playground. This is no longer the case,” said Edwards. “Real money takes place in Bitcoin – and it probably continues for a while.”

When will Altcoins wake up?

Despite the sinister tone, Edwards does not completely reject altcoins. He considers a strong cycle of Altcoin as conditional – not impossible, but first depends on the clear domination of Bitcoin.

Using the Capriole speculation index and the crypto width models, which follow the relative force and the movement of altcoin prices, it has made a key observation: “At the moment, only 5% of altcoins are higher than their 200 -day mobile average. It’s not optimistic. “

He compared the current configuration at the end of 2020, when Bitcoin went from $ 10,000 to $ 60,000 before Altcoins begins to surpass. This rotation forced bitcoin to vioder first the heights of all previous time. “You want Bitcoin to hit something like $ 140,000 while the alts are still underperforming. It would be the ideal configuration […] It is then that capital begins to turn downstream, “he explained.

Conversely, if Altcoins are starting to pump prematurely, while Bitcoin remains linked to the beach, Edwards considers this as a higher signal. “This is usually the last breath of fresh air,” he warned.

The cycles change, the risks evolve

Beyond price action, Edwards questioned the relevance of traditional cycles in half. He argued that the impact of minors – once the main engine of the dynamics of the Bitcoin offer – has decreased significantly due to the Treasury of companies and sovereign actors like Michael Saylor. “This four -year cycle is dead – or at least considerably lower.

This evolution reduces the probability of 80% of withdrawals and increases the risk of systemic leverage, in particular Bitcoin companies listed in bitcoin. Although it is not an immediate concern, Edwards sees a potential for long -term vulnerabilities if the main players compensate.

Edwards also discussed diversification in the Capriole portfolio. While Bitcoin remains the main allowance of the company, he revealed an exhibition to quantum IT actions such as IONQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), D-Wave (QBTS) and QUBT. “I think Quantum is like Bitcoin in 2015. It’s early, but long -term TCAC could be even higher than that of Bitcoin.”

He added that gold also plays a strategic role, not in replacement but like a hedge. Capriole closely monitors the Gold / Investment Capital Report, and its rupture above the 200-day mobile average is considered a historically bullish signal-both for gold and Bitcoin.

In closing, Edwards urged investors to undress most of the financial news cycle. “Probably 99% of titles probably don’t matter,” he said. Instead, focus on game changes: Nourished pivots,, Global liquidity extensionsAnd real structural reconfigurations of the capital flow. “We are wired to react excessively to bad news. The key is to filter it to a few macro drivers who really move the market – and Bitcoin currently has those who work in its favor. ”

Until altcoins show significant width and break their long -term resistance structures, Edwards’ message is clear: Bitcoin will go up. Altcoins won’t do it – at least not yet.

At the time of the press, the BTC was negotiated at $ 105,557.

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