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The veteran analyst of cryptography Bob Loukas has delivered an update of Bitcoin suggesting that the asset could enter the “perfect storm” phase of his four -year cycle. But in a torsion that defies traditional cycle models, Loukas now sees the possibility of a delayed breath stretching at the beginning of 2026 and introduces the prospect of a rare double cycle structure.
In his latest episode of the four -year trip published On June 26, Loukas reaffirms that the current Bitcoin cycle – which started with the bottom of November 2022 – remains structurally intact and approaching its culminating phase. “This is certainly the most optimistic phase of the four -year cycle,” says Loukas. “We are now in a way on the point of what has been traditionally the beginning or the blowing phase of a cycle.”
Bitcoin Blowoff is delayed?
According to Loukas, what separates this cycle is the unique combination of maturation fundamentals and a confluence of macro, institutional and regulatory forces. These include Continuous FNB entries,, Adoption of business treasuryAnd a change in radical policy as part of the Trump administration, including what it can be planned to be a pro-Crypto Fed meeting. Together, these forces create what he calls a “perfect storm” for price expansion.
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Loukas is prudent to provide difficult price targets, but recognizes a doubling effect that could send Bitcoin from its current range close to $ 110,000 to $ 150,000 to $ 170,000 in the short term. Historically, such phases have seen Bitcoin double in a few months once new heights are raped. “An upward escape can see Bitcoin essentially almost double in a very short time,” he said, pointing to the cycle legs where Bitcoin went from $ 25,000 to $ 75,000 or $ 50,000 to $ 100,000 in the five-month windows.
However, what makes this last report particularly notable is the introduction by Loukas of a more complex structure that he calls a “double cycle explosion”. He describes this as a fusion of two adjacent four -year cycle peaks – a concept that could delay the top of the market until the end of February or March 2026, well beyond the 35 -month traditional cycle window.
“If we still have a kind of expansion from six to seven months to a peak … It might lead us to a peak in February or March,” explains Loukas. This scenario, although still in the wider cyclic rhythm, would imply an upward trend from 39 to 41 months rather than from 33 to 35 typical months. “I think it is time … 15 to 16 years after the adoption of Bitcoin,” he notes, referring to the arc of believers of early technology to deep institutional penetration.
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The implications are important. A delayed peak could signify a much shorter corrective phase – or even the emergence of a second explosive rally at the start of the following cycle, creating what Loukas describes as the illusion of an extensive supercycle. “There is an important potential to come to come in this cycle,” he said, warning that many can be caught. “You don’t want to be surprised.”
BTC price targets
Loukas also addresses the image of the broader feeling, noting that the typical mania – the genre that marked the summits in 2017 and the end of 2021 – has not yet materialized. “We have not seen this kind of breath, an absolute extreme feeling that you would generally see near the summit,” he said. He considers it as additional proof that the final phase is still in advance.
Regarding the price objective for a supercycle, Loukas reflects: “I can see figures in the level quarter. […] Seeing a move of 5x, 6x, 7x from here over a period of 2 years in a major mania is not really a section. Even from the point of view of the market stock market, it is not a section, see where gold is already Passing through the level of 20 billions of dollars and far beyond. »»
Although he emphasizes that these ideas are probabilistic and not predictions, Loukas warns against the long -term consequences if his double cycle thesis takes place. A massive influx of institutional capital, of sovereign interest and retail mania could ultimately trigger the first real secular market of the lay bears of Bitcoin, not measured in months but for years. “If you consider a mania that has lasted where so many cash companies and traditional flows meet and reach the peak … The detention process takes much more time.”
For the moment, the Loukas model portfolio remains partially in cash after having reduced certain positions near recent summits, reflecting a conservative approach adapted to the preservation of capital. However, he recognizes that younger or more tolerant investors at risk can consider this moment as a window of final accumulation before the start of the next phase. “This video is very, very optimistic, right?” He quips.
At the time of the press, the BTC was negotiated at $ 107,317.
Star image created with dall.e, tradingView.com graphic
