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With Bitcoin by recovering precariously above the $ 100,000 mark and the bleeding momentum, the traders ask for the evidence: is the crypto bull released? According to the systematic trader Adam Bakay (@Abetrade), the answer is not so clear. In a detailed ventilation of the market published on June 22, Bakay offered a technically anchored and prudently defensive assessment – which recognizes the geopolitical risks but remains rooted in the positioning and the structure of the prices.
Does Bitcoin Bull continue?
“Looking at the monthly and weekly deadlines, we are always technically in an upward trend”, Bakay wrotenoting that “no key swing has been broken, and the 365 -day bearing Vwap was respected during the perspective in April. “Despite this, he admits that” the failure to make new peaks of all time similar to the summit in 2021 “is a concern, in particular the accumulation of players like BlackRock, which now holds around 3.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
It is this divergence – between a strong institutional interest and a market that has trouble breaking – which has made Bakay more careful in recent weeks. “This is why I was very defensive and I kept most of my short-term trades,” he said.
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Its commercial view focuses on two potential technical scenarios: ie a recovery from the support area of $ 100,000 – “probably if the conflict in the Middle East does not degenerate more” – or a drop in the range from $ 97,000 to $ 95,000, where a solid technical support lies in the form of the 200 -day mobile average, the structure of local prices and the VWAP rolling 90 days.
However, Bakay clearly indicated that he does not run the market. “I currently do not envisage any job discovered because of my current positioning,” he said, adding that the open interest is decreasing and that we are starting to see the “first signs of clear submission interest in April”. The options market, on the other hand, flashes to early prudence: the means of risk inversion to 25 delta is around -5, not yet at panic levels, but is more negative.
Crypto-taureau in Jeopardy
On Ethereum, Bakay was particularly frank. “Eth almost had his moment, but of course, he had to become a disappointment,” he said. It attributes the failure of the failure in part to the speed with which the story “defined in the summer of 2025” has become viral. “People become too excited and the market made sure to punish them,” he said, referring to his own tweet a few days earlier.
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The technical image on ETH also does not inspire confidence. “During important market movements, as we did in early May, the last thing you want to see is the withdrawal of prices in this area,” he said, saying that the next significant support is nearly $ 1,800. On the daily graphic, Ethereum is sitting just a confluence of support – both the 90 -day rolling VWAP and what he calls a “central level”. However, a bit like Bitcoin, Bakay sees the short -term fate of Ethereum as largely depending on Developments in the Middle East.
In the positioning position, the ETH also shows signs of an environment of occurrence, although Bakay believes that the high volatility of ETH options has made traders use spreats instead of directional Paris. “The positioning is now very clear to the possible reversal upwards both perpetual and spot,” he said.
Altcoins received no stay. “Altcoins have not been having fun for a long time,” wrote Bakay, stressing that “whenever he is starting to be more beautiful, it worsened almost immediately.” He notes that the expected rotation of Bitcoin in the Altcoins has not materialized, and the real rotation now seems to be in the actions linked to the crypto, which better reflect the macro-exchange focused on ETF.
Even strong names like Solara Discinutes. “Sol has almost retraced the entire rally from April,” he warned. The key level to watch is $ 100. “There is not a lot of technical support below $ 100”, and if “shit strikes the fan”, Bakay would seek to bid around this round number.
Bakay has also briefly discussed two more recent altcoins – Hype and Fartcoin – serving one offer a solid product and the other attracts interest by volatility and liquidity. “Fartcoin would become attractive if it could recover the area of $ 1 or $ 0.50. The braid could find a rebound in $ $. ”
His closing thoughts were pragmatic: “We are not in easy market conditions, with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and the markets can be considerably affected by a single press release.” Although he thinks that the market “becomes too short at the moment”, it remains very aware of the possibility that a correction of several months is already at stake. “I do not think there is a need to be a hero and to try to catch a falling knife,” he concluded. “I would prefer to wait for positive news and signs of lower delay reversal.”
Essentially, Bakay does not call up. But his message shows a clear thing: it is not a market for the bravado. It is a moment of restraint, tight management of risks and respect for volatility, especially when the bullish affair no longer has dynamics on its side.
At the time of the press, BTC exchanged $ 101,847.
Star image created with dall.e, tradingView.com graphic
